A fierce competition is happening among pharmaceutical companies to create the next groundbreaking weight loss drug. While the first generation of GLP-1 drugs showed promising results for weight loss, the focus now is on improving their effectiveness, reducing side effects, and making them easier to use. The potential rewards for these advancements could be worth billions of dollars. Research and development in the GLP-1 field is booming, with many new contenders in the pipeline. However, the most significant value is concentrated among three leading projects from major pharmaceutical companies: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Amgen. Together, these projects have an estimated net present value of about $68 billion and are expected to generate $7.8 billion in global revenue by 2030, according to industry forecasts. Let’s take a closer look at these three promising GLP-1 research projects. Eli Lilly’s retatrutide is the most valuable GLP-1 research project this year, with an estimated net present value of $28.8 billion. If approved, it could reach nearly $4 billion in global sales by the end of the decade. Recent trial results showed that retatrutide helped patients lose more weight than Novo’s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound, and it also reduced knee pain more effectively than semaglutide. However, many participants stopped using retatrutide because they were concerned about losing too much weight. Lilly explained that the discontinuation rates were higher among participants with a very high starting body mass index (BMI), suggesting that retatrutide may be best suited for individuals with severe obesity. Unlike existing GLP-1 therapies, which target one or two hormones, retatrutide mimics the activity of three hormones, making it a potentially more effective weight-loss option. Lilly is conducting several late-stage trials of retatrutide, with results expected by the end of the year, including a head-to-head obesity study against tirzepatide. Novo’s amycretin is the second most valuable project, with an estimated net present value of $20.9 billion and potential global revenue of $1.4 billion by 2030. Phase 2 trial data released last November showed that the highest daily oral dose of amycretin resulted in a 7.6% weight reduction compared to a placebo, while the injectable formulation led to an 11.9% reduction in adults with type 2 diabetes after around nine months. For comparison, a mid-stage study of semaglutide, the main ingredient in approved obesity drugs, showed nearly a 14% weight reduction after one year. Novo is developing both oral and injectable versions of amycretin to compete in the rapidly expanding market of GLP-1 therapies. Amgen’s MariTide is another promising project, with an estimated net present value of $18.3 billion and potential global sales of nearly $2.5 billion by the end of the decade. After discontinuing an earlier obesity candidate, Amgen focused on MariTide, which may have a more favorable side effect profile than other obesity drugs. Mid-stage data shows that Amgen’s monthly MariTide injection led to an average weight loss of up to 20% after nearly a year. However, MariTide will face strong competition from established leaders Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, as well as other companies like Pfizer. Amgen has launched six multinational phase 3 studies of MariTide, including evaluations for type 2 diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea, and other obesity-related conditions like heart failure and cardiovascular disease.